Warsaw Crisis

The Warsaw Crisis, also known as the Polish Civil War or sometimes World War Three, was a multi-party civil conflict in Poland following the collapse of the Polish government after German occupation. The two largest combatants were the Republic of Poland, remnants of the old Republic, and the Commonwealth of Poland, a state formed by members of the military and politicians who abandoned the Republic.

In addition, the Commonwealth contained many militias and political wings of a variety of ideologies ranging from conservatism to fascism. Furthermore, independent militias also fought in the war such as the isolationist group White Dawn or the communist group Socialist World Republic, which had effectively began a de-facto republic in the north.

The conflict began when Chancellor Heinrich Brücken sent 10,000 German soldiers to occupy Warsaw. The Republic, feeling threatened by Russia, allowed the occupation but many Poles, particularly nationalistic and conservatives felt more threatened by Germany and as a result sections of the government abandoned the Republic, eventually fleeing to Budapest. The Commonwealth of Poland was proclaimed and after receiving backing from the Intermarium Alliance, they returned from Budapest to Poland in order to confront the Republic. At this time, a failed military coup had already occurred and remnants of this coup would join the Commonwealth.

The IA then began a full scale military intervention into Poland in order to assist the Commonwealth, invading from Slovakia and Ukraine with decisive battles being fought at Stalowa Wola and Krakow. NATO, who had originally backed the Commonwealth, changed allegiance and began to back the Second Republic of Poland, a democratic faction. NATO began Operation Bastion, the largest air operation in military history, landing troops in the Warsaw Pocket. After pushing out, NATO began Operation Bulldozer and managed to make huge gains across Poland. After many months of fighting, the Republic of Poland had lost a majority of its strategic positions to NATO and the IA at which point the Mike Pence Crisis would occur in which NATO firmly established hegemony over Poland. The Treaty of Budapest was signed and the Commonwealth of Poland and the Republic of Poland were both dissolved and the Second Republic of Poland was officially founded.

The war saw brutal urban fighting and exhausting guerrilla warfare. Militia groups often used guerrilla tactics against larger armies and as such NATO, IA and Russian soldiers often struggled to hunt and find guerrilla hideouts. Urban warfare saw heavy bombardments of cities and in some cases where fighting was most severe, complete destruction of certain neighbourhoods. Civilian casualties were high due to the concentration of fighting near urban areas with rapes, torture and kidnapping frequent. There is no accurate number for the amount of civilian casualties as of yet.

The months of December and January saw a very severe winter. Coupled with the 2019 Oil Recession and OPEC Crisis, troops from all sides, but mainly the Republic, suffered due to the conditions. Logistics were poor due to the conditions and many soldiers starved or froze to death.

Prelude to War
In an effort to strengthen their borders and to thwart off any Russian threat, Germany sent many troops into Eastern European nations such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. 10,000 German troops were stationed in Warsaw. Controversially, the move was backed by the Polish government, causing a rift between the conservatives and democratic socialists. Germany feared that Russia would spread its influence further and as a result Chancellor Brücken announced that "Germany's frontiers would remain safe" following this new deployment. The Polish government was left divided on whether to allow this new deployment scheme with many conservatives and nationalists feeling that their sovereignty was being toppled whilst many liberals felt open to the new deployment, feeling more threatened by Russia.

Protests broke out in Warsaw against the new German deployments, with protesters dissenting outside of German military camps. These protests escalated into riots in some areas with Polish police locked in fierce clashes with protesters.

After a Polish policeman was killed by a rioter, tensions in the government reached breaking point. The rioters were deemed "terrorists" and police began controversial arrests with no reasons in unmarked vans. Many politicians opposed to the new deployment scheme began boycotting parliament and were later labelled as supporters of domestic terrorism. This boycott initially comprised of only a handful of politicians and civil servants but later expanded to half the Polish government.

The Crisis Begins
Politicians began abandoning their positions in protest, with many officially resigning. Following this protest, many took the bold decision to leave to Budapest in Hungary and form a new republic, claiming that they were the legitimate rulers. Hungary and other members of the Visegrad Group formally announced their recognition of the new republic, now known as the Commonwealth of Poland.

During this political crisis, members of the Polish Army attempted to stage a coup against the Republic of Poland which failed. In the fallout of the coup, many independent groups rose up across Poland, the most notable one being the Socialist World Republic, a communist band of militias in northern Poland in the harbours and factories. Other guerrilla groups began to rise across the nation too, in particular White Dawn lead by Witalis Misiak.

The Intermarium Alliance Intervenes
Secret negotiations began between Ukraine and the Commonwealth of Poland over the IA's involvement in Poland. Negotiations eventually concluded and a controversial vote within the IA led to the intervention of Intermarium forces in order to install the Commonwealth regime in Poland. Troops began mobilising on the southern border of Poland and the offensive was launched.